Реформи армії «від Саламатіна» забраковані

Схоже, лихо стартувавши на словах, реформа Збройних сил України тут же серйозно забуксувала. За даними «Хвилі» з джерел, близьких до керівництва Ради національної безпеки і оборони України, запропонований не настільки давно призначеним міністром оборони Дмитро Саламатін проект Концепції реформування та розвитку Збройних сил України на період до 2017 р. зустрів жорстку критику в Кабміні та РНБОУ – в першу чергу в особі секретаря РНБО Андрія Клюєва, фактично «зарубали» грандіозні плани на корені. Хоча в даному випадку, схоже, засмучуватися зовсім і нема чому, якщо врахувати сенс пропозицій.

Аргументація РНБОУ проста і, втім, далека від турботи про обороноздатність, але має пряме відношення до настільки актуального нині у владі пошуку грошей на передвиборні ініціативи Януковича. Зокрема, пропонуючи в стислі терміни скоротити армію в 2,5 рази, Саламатін (дарма що бізнесмен) абсолютно не врахував давно відому істину: якщо говорити про миттєве навантаженні на держбюджет, армію завжди в 5-6 разів дешевше утримувати, ніж скорочувати. Скорочення військових структур – а це виплати чималих за українськими мірками компенсацій кожному офіцерові і контрактнику при звільненні, витрати на розформування частин та установ, створення умов для соціальної адаптації військовослужбовців і т.д., – вимагає колосальних витрат. Тим більше, коли розформовуються відразу цілі військові частини, і «на гражданку» виганяються табуни військових.

До цього варто додати і інші принади різкого скорочення армії (знову-таки, ми не говоримо про обороноздатність – про неї в верхах просто нікому думати). По-перше, це створення соціальної напруги в країні, бо практично кожена звільнена людина в погонах – це доля і членів його сім’ї, в той час як в Україні і так цієї напруги вище даху. По-друге, також давно відомо, що масштабні скорочення армії автоматично викликають зростання злочинності – це зрозуміло, якщо врахувати, що тисячі молодих здорових хлопців, які мають специфічну підготовку за відсутності громадянської освіти, раптом виявляються наданими самі собі і змушені виживати. По-третє, це автоматично негативна реакція суспільства, яка у нас традиційно симпатизує й довіряє армії і, якою б вона не була, бачить в ній символ могутності держави, – що абсолютно неприпустимо в слизький передвиборний період, коли влада ще іншими негативами обвішана як собака блохами.

Цікаво, що проект Концепції був підготовлений в надрах Міноборони Україні в рекордно стислі терміни, практично відразу після приходу Дмитра Саламатіна на посаду міністра. Що вже само по собі дивно, якщо врахувати повну відсутність у новоявленого керівника військового відомства будь-якого попереднього зв’язку з армією. Тобто варто було б очікувати, що людина для початку освоїться на новому місці, зрозуміє, що таке армія і з чим її їдять, вникне хоча б на легкому аматорському рівні в зміст терміну «обороноздатність», а потім вже почне робити якісь стратегічні кроки.

Але – не в нашому випадку. Не встиг Саламатін влаштуватися в кріслі міністра оборони, як з його кабінету вже винесли зазначений документ з підписом нашого полководця. В якому був визначений вигляд армії і флоту на 5-річну перспективу, а з ним визначені і долі десятків тисяч людей, які сьогодні служать Вітчизні, а також і доля обороноздатності нашої держави.

Точніше, передувала поява проекту Концепції реформування та розвитку Збройних сил України на період до 2017 р. вельми серйозна робота, проведена в МО, в результаті якої з’явився документ з аналогічною назвою, тільки до 2015 р. Тут дані щодо скорочення армії хоч і не пахли обороноздатністю в умовах проголошеної Януковичем позаблоковості, однак були зроблені з урахуванням можливості виконання Збройними силами Україні хоча б якихось реальних завдань.

За нашими даними, коли Саламатін вивчав це творіння, цифри він в ньому правив не замислюючись, на ті, що йому приходили в голову. Боязкі натяки авторів документа, що виправляти дані підтверджені серйозними розрахунками, напоролися на грізний начальницький рик вчорашнього торговця зброєю. У той же час, в Міноборони і Генштабі ЗС Україні немає традиції заперечувати начальству, які б дурниці воно не пороло. Тому «на гора» і відправився проект з цифрами, виписаними, скажімо так, від балди.

У нас, звичайно, немає відеозапису, на якому була б зафіксована ця сцена. Однак ті дані про пропоновану Саламатіним Концепції, які просочилися в ЗМІ, є найяскравішим підтвердженням, що все було якщо не точно так, то дуже близько до цього. Зауважимо також: за 20 років незалежності в Україну навчилися грати в прозорість армії для суспільства і так званий цивільний контроль над ЗС, однак при Януковичі всі ці слабкі напрацювання були загублені в момент. Найважливіша Концепція розроблялася в умовах найсуворішої таємниці (раніше проекти таких документів хоча б «для галочки» виносилися на обговорення експертного середовища), а дані про неї потрапили в ЗМІ абсолютно неофіційними шляхами.

 

Зокрема, згідно пропозиціям горе-реформатора Саламатіна, реформа Збройних сил України передбачає скорочення чисельності української армії протягом найближчих 5 років з 192 тис. до 70 тис. чоловік. Як відомо, на сьогоднішній день у ЗСУ, згідно з даними Білої книги-2011, налічується 192 тис. осіб, з яких 144 тис. військовослужбовців і 48 тис. цивільного персоналу. Через 2,5 роки (до кінця 2014 року) у ЗСУ має значитися 100 тис. осіб, з яких 85 тис. – військовослужбовці і 15 тис. цивільні особи.

Подібних темпів скорочення, якщо брати в пропорції, не знала жодна армія в новітній історії людства, якщо не говорити про післявоєнний період. Враховуючи, що ці темпи висмоктані нинішнім міністром оборони з пальця, взагалі незрозуміло, на що він розраховував, які думки бродили в голові цього стратега (і чи були вони взагалі), коли він «винайшов» ці цифри. Ми мовчимо вже про те, що Україні на сьогодні не має навіть Військової доктрини, як базового документа, в якому визначаються існуючі та потенційні військові загрози державі, і на підставі якого вже і створюється образ армії, яка потрібна (нині існуюча Військова доктрина писалася при Ющенку і повністю орієнтована на вступ України в НАТО та отримання гарантій колективної безпеки, що не вимагає від країни мати великі Збройні сили).

Але, слава Богу, поки що цим божевільним планам наказано почекати – в РНБОУ і Кабміні прозріли, скільки грошей треба на саламатінську «реформу». Ми, звичайно, не виключаємо, що після виборів цей, або ще більш ідіотський проект буде затверджено, і в труну ЗС Україні буде вбитий остаточний цвях. Але це буде пізніше.

Борис Такаєв

Автор публікації

Офлайн 7 години

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Коментарі: 0Публікації: 5171Реєстрація: 20-06-2016

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