Перша в історії російського пасажирського літака Sukhoi Superjet-100 (SSJ) катастрофа забрала життя 45 чоловік. Відбулася в небі Індонезії трагедія вже породила ряд побоювань за долю розробки, що вважається в останні роки надією російського авіапрому. На тлі невтішного горя родичів загиблих, вкрай важко розмірковувати про те, який вплив ця подія матиме на перспективи основного конкурента SSJ – українсько-російського пасажирського літака Ан-148. Але як би там не було, а робити вигляд що нічого не сталося все одно не вийде. Потрібно дивитися правді в очі, аварія в горах Індонезії може зіграти величезну роль у долі Ан-148 і аж ніяк не позитивну. Наслідки залежать від причини/

 

Нагадаємо, що 9 травня новітній російський близькомагістральний літак Sukhoi SuperJet-100 врізався в вертикальний схил гори Салака в Індонезії. На борту літака були 45 осіб – вісім громадян Росії, один громадянин Франції, один громадянин США, дві громадянки Італії і 33 громадянина Індонезії. Літак зник з екранів радарів в середу після показового польоту в Джакарті. SSJ-100 виконував перший у своїй історії демонстраційний тур по шести країнам Азії. В ході нього Sukhoi Superjet мав відвідати шість країн. 3 травня літак брав участь у виставці KADEX-2012 в Казахстані, 5 травня був в Пакистані, 7 травня – в М’янмі. Після 9 травня літак повинен був відправитися в Лаос (показ був запланований на 11 травня), а 14 травня – до В’єтнаму.

 

Sukhoi Superjet прийнято вважати найамбітнішим проектом російського авіабудування з часів розпаду СРСР. Ці літаки з часом повинні були замінити Ту-134, SSJ здатні перевозити 95 пасажирів на відстань до 4,5 тис. км. Перший політ відбувся 25 липня 2009 року в Комсомольську-на-Амурі. На сьогоднішній день російському “Аерофлоту” і вірменської Armavia поставлено в цілому вісім літаків SSJ. Отже, можна без перебільшення говорити, що 9 травня 2012 назавжди залишиться одним з найчорніших днів для російського авіапрому.

 

Безумовно, загибель людей затьмарює за своєю значимістю всі інші наслідки катастрофи, але все ж дозволимо собі зупинитися і на практичних питаннях, які ставить індонезійська аварія. Дуже багато чого тут залежить від того, що саме стало причиною катастрофи. Поки рятувальники та індонезійські військові тільки почали вивчати місце падіння літака, робити навіть попередні висновки про те, що ж призвело до аварії, рано. Можна тільки говорити про те, що якщо літак врізався в гору через помилки в пілотуванні або в результаті різкого погіршення погодних умов, то це по ідеї повинно бути з розумінням сприйнято потенційними покупцями. Якщо ж літак зазнав аварії у зв’язку з відмовою бортового обладнання або ж виходом з ладу двигуна, то це вже зовсім інша історія. Слід так само враховувати, що вся електронна начинка літака і більшість основних агрегатів виготовлено провідними авіабудівними компаніями Франції, США, Німеччини, Великобританії і Швейцарії. Зрозуміло, що представники всіх цих компаній візьмуть участь у розслідуванні інциденту, що дозволить вважати остаточні висновки про причини катастрофи максимально об’єктивними.

 

Проте російські експерти вже говорять про те, що інцидент в Індонезії ставить під сумнів амбітні плани Росії вийти на світовий ринок авіабудування. Адже саме з проектом SSJ-100 були пов’язані основні надії російського авіапрому по завоюванню своєї ніші на світовому авіаринку.


Ан-148 і SSJ-100 – конкуренти чи «друзі» по нещастю

 

Але перейдемо нарешті до того, чому власне і присвячений, цей спірний з етичної точки зору текст. Як повідомлялося в російських ЗМІ, Міністерство оборони М’янми уклало попередню угоду на поставку двох SSJ-100 в 2011 р. «Це замовлення міг би стати другим цивільним в історії відносин з міноборони М’янми. Правда, від першого воно в минулому році фактично відмовилося. Один з двох літаків Ан-148, зроблених спеціально для М’янми, під час демонстраційного польоту в Воронежі, безпосередньо перед передачею замовнику, зазнав аварії», – пише 10 травня російська газета «Ведомости».

 

Дійсно спроектований в українському КБ ім. Антонова середньомагістральний пасажирський літак Ан-148 зазнав аварії 5 березня 2011 року, тоді загинули всі 8 чоловік, що знаходилися на борту, серед яких були 2 громадянина М’янми. Катастрофа поставила хрест на подальшій співпраці за проектом Ан-148 з цією країною. Забирати літаки М’янма не стала, незважаючи навіть на те, що Міжнародний авіаційний комітет визнав помилку пілотування, а не проблеми з технікою. Але аварія під Воронежем лише епізод у непростій ситуації навколо спільного українсько-російського виробництва Ан-148.

 

Оцінений фахівцями як дуже перспективний, хоч і сируватий, літак Ан-148 виробляється Воронезьким акціонерним літакобудівним товариством (ВАЛТ) і ДП «Антонов». У 2010 році, після потепління українсько-російський відносин у літака намітилися дуже непогані перспективи на російському ринку, а так само на ринках країн СНД, на які він був орієнтований. Однак, з початку 2011 року новий керівник Об’єднаної авіабудівної компанії (ОАК) Михайло Погосян, який раніше очолював компанію «Сухой», явно взяв курс на згортання цього проекту або як мінімум на серйозне урізування його фінансування. Тоді М.Погосян відкрито заявляв, що літак Sukhoi Superjet-100 (розробка компанії «Цивільні літаки Сухого») має кращі ринкові перспективні, ніж українсько-російський Ан-148. Такої відвертої ангажованості від керівника ОАК ніхто не очікував. Попередній керівник російської корпорації Олексій Федоров був все ж помітно більше не упередженим навіть в ті роки, коли політичні взаємини між Україною і РФ були близькі до повного “замерзання”.

 

В принципі, експертне співтовариство не бачило нерозв’язної суперечності у виробництві підприємствами ОАК одночасно і Ан-148 і SSJ-100, не дивлячись на те, що вони займали одну ринкову нішу. Формально ці літаки мали шанс не вступати в пряму конкуренцію, оскільки Sukhoi Superjet-100 створювався не для ринку СНД, а для західного ринку і виконаний переважно з іноземних, а не російських комплектуючих, тоді як виробництво комплектуючих для Ан-148 було в основному локалізовано на території Росії та Ураїни. Але одна справа роздуми експертів, а інше позиція керівництва ОАК, в якій по відношенню до української розробки простежується махровий суб’єктивізм.

 

Президент-генеральний конструктор ДП «Антонов» Дмитро Ківа останнім часом неодноразово висловлював свою стурбованість зниженням темпів виробництва Ан-148 на Воронезькому авіазаводі. У 2011 році на ВАЛТ планувалося випустити 28 Ан-148, але в результаті було зібрано лише 4 літаки. Не вселяє оптимізму і рік нинішній на який планувалася збірка 12-ти 148-х, вже зараз видно, що їх кількість навряд чи наблизиться до 10. Якщо ж з’ясується, що аварію 9 травня закрила перед SSJ-100 двері на ринки країн Південно-Східної Азії та інших перспективних регіонів, то шанси Ан-148 стати дійсно масовим літаком виглядають зовсім вже сумно. Немає сумнівів в тому, що ОАК не відмовиться від проекту Superjet, в який вкладено мільярди доларів і більше 10 років роботи, але втрата зовнішніх ринків змусить керівництво корпорації шукати покупця на цей літак в Росії. В такому разі ні про яке поділі сфер впливу з Ан-148 і мова бути не може. Як це не сумно, але трагедія в Індонезії може стати «лебединою піснею» для українського літака. Без російської підтримки Ан-148 так і залишиться штучним виробом ручної збірки.

 

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