FT: Trump to demand 5% of GDP for defense from NATO

Donald Trump’s administration has informed European officials that the new US president would demand that NATO member states increase defense spending to 5% of GDP.

This was reported by the Financial Times, citing its own sources.

According to the newspaper, the closest aides to the newly elected US president on foreign policy shared their intentions in discussions with senior European officials this month.

During his election campaign, Trump promised, among other things, to leave NATO allies defenseless if they failed to spend enough on defense and to stop supporting Ukraine in order to force it to negotiate.

However, according to the publication, Trump now intends to continue military assistance to Ukraine after his inauguration. However, he will demand that NATO allies more than double the current spending target of 2% to 5%.

One source said that Trump would accept 3.5 percent, and that he plans to explicitly link higher defense spending to offering more favorable trade terms with the United States.

“It’s clear we’re talking about 3 percent or more for [the June NATO summit in The Hague],” said another European official who has been briefed on Trump’s thinking.

Allies are already discussing raising the target to 3 percent at the June meeting of leaders. But many countries are concerned about the difficult financial decisions that would be required.

Dynamics of changes in NATO defense spending

An increase in defense spending to 2% of GDP was agreed upon at the NATO Summit in Warsaw in 2016.

As of 2024, only 23 out of 32 Allies are on track to meet the spending target. However, this is a significant increase compared to 2022, when only 7 NATO member states met the target.

In total, over 2022-24, the expenditures of the alliance members, adjusted for inflation, increased by more than 33%.

At the same time, according to the White House Office of Management and Budget, the United States will spend about 3.1 percent of GDP on defense in 2024. Thus, the United States is the only member of the alliance that has not increased but decreased defense spending relative to GDP over the past 10 years.

During his first presidency in 2017-2021, Trump raised defense spending to 3.4 percent of GDP in 2020. This brought them back to the level of 2014.