NATO’s Response: Russia-NATO War Article Outlines Exercise Scenario

NATO representative states that the Bild article about the war between Russia and the Alliance was a scenario of exercises, not real combat operations.

This statement originates from Jānis Sārts, the Director of the NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence.

Sārts noted that Bild has a training scenario at its disposal, which is always a fictional situation.

He added that it is aimed at testing military capabilities in a particular area.

“Scenarios used to be completely fictional with non-existent countries and geographic regions. Now it is more appropriate to use existing countries and geographical regions,” Sārts added.

The day before, Bild reported that it had gained access to a secret Bundeswehr document – a training scenario that describes step by step how a war between Russia and NATO could develop.

The scenario describes the actions of Russia and the West month by month, culminating in the deployment of hundreds of thousands of NATO soldiers and the inevitable outbreak of war in the summer of 2025.

Scenario

The German Defense Ministry’s document detailed a possible “Path to Conflict” between Russia and NATO, which is now being presented as a drill.

The scenario described the actions of Russia and the West month by month, culminating in the deployment of hundreds of thousands of NATO soldiers and the inevitable outbreak of war in the summer of 2025.

Bild described the scenario from the document, but for security reasons, it did not reflect all the information on the number and movement of NATO troops.

The Bundeswehr’s scenario, “Alliance Defense 2025,” would start in February 2024.

At this time, the notional “Russia” launches another wave of mobilization and conscription of an additional 200,000 people. The Kremlin then launches a spring offensive in Ukraine, which, by June, pushes the Ukrainian army back.

Russia’s initially covert and then increasingly overt attack on the West begins in July.

Cyberattacks and other forms of hybrid warfare are expected, mainly in the Baltic states. There are clashes, which Russia uses as a pretext to launch large-scale exercises on its territory and in Belarus.

According to the scenario, this situation could escalate in October if Russia deploys troops and medium-range missiles to Kaliningrad.

Since December 2024, an artificially induced “border conflict” and “riots with numerous victims” have been taking place in the Suwałki Corridor area.

At a time when the United States may be left without a leader within weeks of the election, Russia, with the support of Belarus, is repeating the 2014 invasion of Ukraine on NATO territory.

In May 2025, NATO decides on deterrence measures, and on “Day X,” NATO deploys 300,000 troops, including 30,000 Bundeswehr soldiers, to the eastern flank.

The exercise scenario ends 30 days after “Day X.” Whether Russia will be deterred by NATO remains an open question in this scenario.