The EU Prepares for War: European Commission Sets Defense Policy for 2030

The European Union has released the White Paper for European Defense, recognizing Russia as a fundamental threat and outlining a strategic development plan to bolster the defense capabilities of both the EU and Ukraine over the next five years.

This is stated in the White Paper for European Defense, which was published by the European Commission.

The Commission has presented a strategic development plan for defense capabilities along with details of the economic project ReArm Europe/Readiness 2030, which provides financial tools to increase investment in the defense potential of EU countries.

While the ReArm Europe/Readiness 2030 project strengthens the overall European defense capacity through new financial resources, the White Paper outlines a new approach to defense and investment needs.

These measures aim to develop solutions for Ukraine’s short-term urgent support, as well as long-term needs for strengthening Europe’s defense capabilities.

Strategic Plan of the White Paper

The White Paper presents solutions to close critical capability gaps and build a strong defense industrial base. It proposes ways for Member States to invest massively in defense, procure defense systems, and build up the readiness of the European defense industry in the long run.

The document outlines seven priority defense issues for the Union’s member countries, which currently have gaps and will be crucial in the future for building a reliable European defense:

• Air and missile defense: The EU requires a unified, multi-layered air and missile defense system to protect against the full spectrum of airborne threats (cruise, ballistic, and hypersonic missiles, aircraft, and drones).
• Artillery systems: Advanced systems, including modern artillery and long-range missiles, designed for delivering precise strikes on ground targets.
• Ammunition and missiles: Based on the European External Action Service’s “Ammunition Plan 2.0,” a strategic reserve of ammunition, missiles, and components must be created, with sufficient manufacturing capacity in the defense industry to ensure timely replenishment.
• Drones and counter-drone systems: Unmanned systems, including aerial, ground, surface, and underwater vehicles, which can be operated by an operator or act autonomously.
• Military mobility: The development of a pan-European network of land corridors, airports, seaports, and supporting infrastructure that facilitates the seamless and rapid transportation of troops and equipment within the EU and partner countries.
• Artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, and electronic warfare: Enhancing security in the software environment, utilizing systems with artificial intelligence and quantum computing.
• Strategic systems and protection of critical infrastructure: Developing strategic airlift capabilities and refueling aircraft, intelligence and surveillance, maritime domain awareness, space operations, secure communication means, and fuel infrastructure.

Focus on military support for Ukraine

The White Paper defines Russia as a fundamental threat to Europe’s security in the foreseeable future and considers the war in Ukraine as crucial for its own future in the short term. In light of this, a significant emphasis must be placed on increasing military support and other forms of assistance to Ukraine.

These intentions include providing large-caliber artillery ammunition, with at least 2 million rounds per year. There is a significant short-term requirement for full funding of ammunition supplies to Ukraine throughout 2025, particularly through incentivized donations from stockpiles and purchases.

Special attention is also given to providing air defense systems, missiles for them, and drones. A bilateral Air Defense Initiative with Ukraine should be launched, covering collective procurement and financial support for Ukraine to accelerate the production of interceptors in the short-term and medium-range air defense systems.

It is stated that unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are a key factor in compensating for the asymmetry of military resources on the battlefield. The EU must continue to support Ukraine in the procurement of drones and further assist in developing its own manufacturing capabilities, particularly by creating joint ventures between European and Ukrainian industries.

EU efforts to train and equip Ukrainian brigades and actively support the restoration of battalions must be consolidated, further developed, and transformed into a crucial element of Ukraine’s military potential development after any ceasefire.

Direct support for Ukraine’s defense industry is considered the most effective and cost-efficient way to support Ukraine’s military capabilities, mainly through direct purchases by member states from Ukrainian defense industries. The estimated production capacity of Ukraine’s defense industry is expected to reach around €35 billion in 2025, which Ukraine can also supplement through EU loans.

Additionally, the new instrument, Security Action for Europe (SAFE), will provide Ukraine’s defense industry the opportunity to participate in joint European procurements on equal terms with the EU industry.

ReArm Europe / Readiness 2030

As European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced, the ReArm Europe/Readiness 2030 plan includes investments of over €800 billion.

The Commission will raise up to €150 billion in capital markets to help EU member states quickly and significantly increase investments in Europe’s defense capabilities. These funds will be allocated to interested member states for investments in national defense development projects.

The payments will take the form of long-term loans, which the EU budget reserve will secure. SAFE will enable member states to immediately and substantially increase their defense investments through joint procurements from the European defense industry, focusing on priority capabilities.

Ukraine will also be able to join joint procurements, and the project will allow for the opening of defense product procurement from Ukrainian manufacturers.