Further possible development of naval drones

Attacks by naval drones on August 4 and 5 on approaches to the Kerch Strait and Novorossiysk showed Ukraine’s ability to project military force to the eastern and central Black Sea (in fact – up to 400 miles/740 km). This deprives our enemy of having at least one safe base point on the Black Sea (which was Novorossiysk).

But the threat of sea missile attacks from enemy surface ships and submarines remains high. Presumably, the accumulation of missiles continues, and they in particular can be used for strikes against our energy sector.

Some thoughts on the further development of our capabilities to attack at sea:

The USV will not be able to safely maneuver near the warship on which the daily operating presence is organized (this could be seen recently).

The drone is difficult to use against a maneuverable target. The distance of the 600 km drone passes in 10-12 hours. During this time, the warship can shift very far, or go to a protected base.

The guidance from the drone sensor works well (the same principle was in the guidance of the first Soviet missiles, called TU-2), but the transmission channel can be jammed by the EW – we should remember this.

Striking with an anti-ship missile 600 km from our base can be solved thanks to the maneuver of a boat with 1-8 missiles to a firing position at sea with the subsequent strike of the AShM on the maximum range (the probability of killing a warship will increase significantly, the missile flies 200 km in 6 minutes, the AShM is more difficult to counter).

If the United States mounted two NSM missiles on an unmanned surface vessel under the NMESIS program, then it can also be done on a small unmanned boat. The factor of surprise or ambush strikes at the exits of the basing points usually increases the effectiveness of drones.

Conclusion: The combination of attack drones (for stationary or relatively slow-moving targets) with missile boats 30-300 tons (including unmanned ones) looks like an option to deter the enemy within the Black and Azov Seas.