Poland planned to surrender 40% of its territories in case of Russian invasion

Polish officials showcased declassified documents containing a plan for a large-scale army retreat across the Vistula River in the event of a Russian invasion.

The video with the statement was published by the Minister of Defense Mariusz Błaszczak.

“The plan for the use of the armed forces, approved by the then head of the Defense Ministry Klich, stipulated that the country’s independent defense would last a maximum of two weeks, and in seven days the enemy would reach the right bank of the Vistula. The documents clearly show that Lublin, Rzeszów, and Łomża could have been a Polish Bucha,” Błaszczak said.

A possible retreat of the Polish armed forces across the Vistula would mean the loss of 40% of the territory and its surrender to the advancing enemy forces virtually without a fight.

Defense Strategy 2011

In his speech, Mariusz Błaszczak demonstrated several points from the defense plan agreed upon in 2011, which was developed in case of a Russian invasion of Poland.

Thus, according to the document, in the event of hostilities, the armed forces “will defend their territories, airspace and territorial waters in order to delay the pace of the enemy’s offensive operation as much as possible and stop the attack on the frontiers in the area of the Vistula and Wieprz rivers.”

At one stage, after “withdrawing to the strategic perimeter, the main efforts will be aimed at stopping the enemy’s offensive and holding bridgeheads on the right bank of the Vistula, as well as ensuring the reception of NATO allied troops.”

Indirectly, it is indicated that in 2011, NATO forces needed up to 14 days to deploy an international military contingent in Poland and begin to resist the Russian invasion. During that time, the Polish army had to restrain the opposition on its own, gaining time.

It is worth noting that, according to the inscriptions on the cover page, this document was already classified as “top secret” in 2013. A possible explanation for this could be changes in doctrine and the creation of a new defense strategy.

It should also be added that in order to properly evaluate such a military strategy, it is necessary to understand the context and time when it was concluded. In 2011, the Polish army was in a very difficult situation and had low combat capability, and the army was only shrinking in numbers. Accordingly, Polish military strategists were planning based on the resources available to them.

Warsaw in 4 days

It is also worth mentioning that during the simulation of similar hostilities in 2020 during the Zima-20 command and CP exercises, disappointing results were obtained.

Polish media outlets, citing informants, claimed that on the fifth day of the virtual conflict, “the enemy was on the Vistula line, battles were underway for Warsaw, and strategic ports were blocked or captured.” As a result of the command and CP exercises, Poland’s air force and navy were destroyed despite NATO’s support.

At the same time, as noted by the media, the war model included weapons that Poland would receive only in the future. It regards F-35 fighter jets, Patriot air defense missile systems and HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems.

Political struggle

The defense minister made his statement on the eve of the parliamentary elections, in which the main competitor for the ruling party is the opposition force, which adopted the scandalous defense document.

Given that the presented document no longer has any military value, it is now only a means of political pressure.